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In 1907, America’s “Great White Fleet” began its circumnavigation of the world, as ordered by President Theodore Roosevelt.

It was an important symbolic step in America’s transition from from a policy of self-defense to one of international policing.   “Teddy” claimed that his policies as president were derived from the Monroe Doctrine, the culminating foreign policy statement of the Founding Fathers.   In truth, however, he was the president most responsible for the dramatic shift in American foreign policy towards “making the world safe for democracy.” This resulted in its entanglement in first European, then Middle-Eastern, and — in the shift that will characterize the 21st century — far-Eastern affairs (beginning with Obama’s “pivot to Asia”).

The expansion of America’s capability to project force anywhere in the world was obviously a part of its shift towards actively engaging the world as a police power, and the Great White Fleet announced this capability to the world.

The “Great White Fleet”: Teddy’s “Big Stick”

In 2002, less than a hundred years later, the Chinese navy completed its first circumnavigation of the globe.   It was far less spectacular, to be sure, with the expedition consisting of a single missile destroyer and fueling ship.  Nonetheless, it was a statement, to be considered within a wider context of China’s changing conduct.

In 2008, Chinese navy vessels began operating in the Gulf of Aden against Somali pirates, in the first ever military deployment for China outside of the “Asia-Pacific” region.

In 2010, Chinese navy ships were deployed for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea, which, in consideration of world history seems to have an even greater symbolic significance than the prior circumnavigation.  Undoubtedly, they watched as Western powers overthrew the Libyan regime, and are there to gather as much intelligence when Syria is targeted.

In September 2011 the PLAN made further steps to a “blue water navy” when its first aircraft carrier, the rebuilt ex-Soviet carrier Varyag was deployed for sea trials.

That’s an interesting list of firsts.

In the explosive geo-political context of Asia, I’m struck by the following:  How long was it, after the US navy circumnavigated the world was it that the United States was playing the decisive role in World War I?  Ten years.

We are now ten years after the Chinese navy first did it.

To be sure, China has not indicated that it intends to police the world.  Wen Jiabao is no Teddy, and the world can be thankful for that. However, with virtually all of its oil flowing from the Indian Ocean into the Straights of Malacca, it is notable that China’s naval development is accelerating and its posturing for control of the South China Sea is increasing.

In the second installment of 1HFA5: Japan, China, India, and the New Era of the Balance of Power, we’ll be looking specifically at China, and its increasingly confident and aggressive response to subordination by the West.   We’ll explore the history of China, from its founding through to the present, in order to answer the question:  What is China?  And what will it do?  

It is perhaps the question of the 21st century.  It certainly is not a question Americans can afford to ignore.

Registration for this course segment, as well as the entire “First History” of Asia, is now open.

We’ll cover the story of China in eight lectures, once a week, starting September 22.  See the program webpage for details. Live classes using WebEx are available, along with podcast recordings, easily accessible through iTunes.

Registration is available here.

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A Japanese nobleman prepares to kill himself. Why? Because he’d rather die than try to make sense of Japanese history using conventional sources!

The answer is Powell History’s “First History” method!  The first lecture of my new course on the  First History of Japan for Adults will be available FREE as a podcast, exclusively on Facebook, as of this Saturday!

Please join me at:  http://www.facebook.com/AFirstHistoryForAdults for the solution!

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Japan’s federal debt is scheduled to reach 240% of GDP by the end of this year. Not surprisingly, Fitch downgraded Japan today, from AA to A+. Here’s the standard treatment from the Financial Times: Fitch Downgrades Japan on Public Finances.

To rate Japan A+ is generous, to say the least.  It is *impossible* for Japan to meet its obligations by growing its economy.  It is undergoing the early stages of a demographic implosion, and its economy is a shambles after the 3/11 disaster.  As Kyle Bass is well known for explaining, Japan’s financial situation is “spring loaded,” with disastrous consequences, if even the slightest changes occurs to its debt financing costs, and these changes are coming fast!  Here’s Bass, discussing the matter, in brief:

In my upcoming course, The First History for Adults, Part 5-1: The History of Japan, I will discuss how Japan got into its present predicament, what the essence of the present historical moment is for Japanese culture, and what the likeliest outcomes are that will shake the world in the 21st century.  The course starts July 14th, and discounted registration is still available!

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Japan has 54 nuclear reactors, but as of Saturday, not one of them will be in operation…

Before the 3/11 disaster, Japan relied on nuclear power for about 30% of its electricity, and there were plans to increase that to 50% by 2030 with the construction of new reactors.  Now what?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/03/japan-nuclear-power-closure

Chris Martenson, one of the experts I respect most on the topic of the on-going global economic crisis, has some thoughts about how to integrate Japan’s energy crisis within a broader framework.  Here’s his article:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/japan-another-spinning-plate-global-economy-circus/72033

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HistoryAtOurHouse podcast #3 features a segment from the High School class on the topic of “Subjectivism vs. History”

http://historyatourhouse.podbean.com/2012/04/23/subjectivism-vs-history/

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Just a quick reminder:

Pre-registration for 1HFA5:  Japan, China, India and the New Era of the Balance of Power, and separate pre-registration for the first course segment: 1HFA5-1: The First History of Japan both close tomorrow, April 19.

Save up to $120 by pre-registering!

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This week’s sample is from the Lower Elementary class.  It is a secular introduction to the BC/AD convention:

http://historyatourhouse.podbean.com/2012/04/16/bc-and-ad-a-secular-introduction-for-lower-elementary-students/

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Article 9 of the Japanese constitution reads:

Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. To accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

As many people are aware, this, along with other essential features of the current Japanese constitution (such as the renunciation of the divinity of the Japanese emperor) were imposed on Japan by the conquering power of the United States following World War II.

In his book Nothing Less than Victory historian John David Lewis explores how the overwhelming use of force brought about the enduring peace with Japan, and one can hardly argue with the results of American policy when assessing the past 60 years, with Japan apparently serving as a loyal subordinate of the United States since the beginning of the Cold War.

But what if we expand the context of our apperception somewhat to a longer continuum of Japan’s past, present and future?  Why is it that geo-political expert George Friedman predicts war between the United States and Japan by the middle of the 21st century in his book The Next Hundred Years?

A meaningful prediction of Japan’s conduct through the next hundred years must be grounded in a proper assessment of Japan’s last hundred years, especially its cultural response to the geopolitical supremacy of first Europe and now the United States.  In 1HFA5-1: The History of Japan, we will explore how Japan responded to the arrival of America’s “black ships” under the command of Commodore Perry in 1854 by trying to overturn that supremacy.  Then, one hundred years later still, during the American occupation of 1945-52, the Japanese struggled to define a new path by accepting it.  Why then, one hundred years later–by 2045 to be sure–as Friedman predicts, will Japan have likely returned to being an belligerent nation once again?

Japan certainly appears quiescent.   What happens, however, when it is forced to declare national bankruptcy within the next five years, due to a debt problem that far exceeds that of the United States and that can no longer be evaded?  What happens when Japanese industry cannot get the raw materials it needs because of expanded wars in the Middle East?  What happens when these factors combined with Japan’s demographic implosion force the Japanese to choose between an even more acute subordinacy in world affairs and the “glorious” hope of a Japan reborn through the “way of the warrior”?   The most essential traits of Japanese culture in the evolving context of American supremacy make a return to war almost inevitable!  Find out why in 1HFA 5-1: The “First History” of Japan for Adults(Pre-registration specials available until April 19.)

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As promised, I’m inviting former First History clients of Powell History to revisit their history studies to explore how to apply what they’ve learned.  The goal is to practice the arts of iteration and integration–two of the Powell History “Five ‘I’s of History.

Of course, anyone who is interested is welcome to participate. So here is the “pop quiz”…

In 1878, Japan was desperate to modernize its army to catch up with the West. It had originally turned to Britain for help in developing its navy, and France for help in developing its army. Now, however, it shunned the French model that it had been following since the mid-nineteenth century and adopted another. Whose model was it and why did the Japanese adopt it?

For students of 1HFA, Part 2: Europe – Context and Foil, the answer is found in lecture 15.

BONUS QUESTION: What is the significance of this shift in Japanese policy to its conduct in the World Wars?

[Answer(s) provided with the next PHR History Pop Quiz!]

Interested in developing an integrated of Western and Eastern civilization?  1HFA5: Japan, China, and India  is coming this summer, and pre-registration is now open (until April 19).

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According to a recent post by Simon Black, a.k.a. “Sovereign Man“, there are “four obvious signs of Asia’s rise over the West.”

Are you convinced?

A First History for Adults, Part 5: Japan, China, and India and the New Era of the Balance of Power is coming soon!    Empower yourself with the context of knowledge you need to be able to weigh such arguments and prepare for the new shape of the world.

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